Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Setting Up The Next Oil Crisis

A year ago, the price of oil was rising inexorably and impossibly. When it became apparent the rise would continue, buying became frantic. Suppliers were desperate to hedge against future price increases. Speculators bought and held, selling when they had made their target price to yet more speculators, who did the same.

When prices peaked in July, huge supplies of oil were available for refining. With prices now rapidly falling, no one wants to buy oil. Suppliers are running down stocks, knowing they can replace it cheaper, the longer they wait. Oil held off the market by speculators is readily available, in addition to the fresh pumped stuff. There is a glut. OPEC is having to cut production. There are no ready buyers and the price is not to their liking. They are in no rush to pump or sell. They have all the time in the World and a good deal of the cash. Sand and shale sources, with higher production costs, have a hard time competing, when prices go South. Production slows as personnel are let go to economize. At some point, supply will reach equilibrium with demand. Then it will dip a little lower. Oil prices will have reached their lows. They won't be as low as many would like. They won't be as low as they were a few years ago or maybe even last year.

The cycle will start again. The last price peak was $140 a barrel. Next time will be a lot higher.

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