Slue Foot

There is a trick that rich boys learn when gambling and GWB has apparently learned it well. Double down when you lose and go for broke. It doesn't matter how much you lose or how bad things get, If your pockets are deep enough and you've got the guts, you will eventually win and come out ahead. That's what he's doing in Iraq. It's a strategy that will certainly work. The only question is, are his pockets deep enough and does he have enough time.

Bush is betting everything he has left on David Petreaus and the surge. William Kristol, the quintessential neocon, has crowed, that in Petreaus, Bush has found his Ulysses S. Grant. I think that Petreaus is cast more in the role of Eisenhower than Grant. As Eisenhower was able to unite the diverse and antagonistic Allied factions to subdue fortress Europe, Petreaus must convince the Iraqis that it is in their interest to unite and form a stable and democratic society. Petreaus is a good choice. He is smart, confident and a hard worker. Whether he will succeed is still in question.

The question is not whether Petreaus is up to the job but whether the Iraqis are ready to lay down their arms and work together. All of this talk by the administration, about Al Qaeda terrorists being the real threat in Iraq, is not helpful. It should be clear to everyone who is in the least informed, that the Iraqis themselves are the real roadblock to resolution of the current chaos. Even if Al Qaeda is responsible for significant disruption in Iraq, they could not function without at least the tacit support of the majority of the populace. I see no indication that the Iraqis are ready for peaceful coexistence, not the man on the street, not the religious leaders, not the army or police, not the civil service or elected leaders. Petreaus can lead them into a secure and prosperous future, of this there is no doubt. I don't think that's where they want to go. I don't think Petreaus has the tools to make them want to go there. I truly wish that he did.

Pollsters seem to agree that less than 30% of Americans still believe that Bush is doing a good job. There are still slightly more than 40% who don't believe we should we should precipitously withdraw from Iraq. I don't believe that the President's personal popularity can go any lower. Those who are with him now will be with him til the end. If Petreaus fails though, I think it's probable that the war fails with him. Support for the war will continue to erode if he fails.

I do not expect that Bush will give up. He has shown that his resolve transcends mere stupidity. He is the John Henry, the Paul Bunyan, the Joe Magerak of retards. He is the Pecos Bill of the thirty percenters, although he may have more in common with Slue Foot Sue.

While Bush may have nothing more to lose and everything to gain by his current Iraq stand, this is not true of the Republican Party. If we are still embroiled in an unsuccessful foreign war in November of 2008, the election will be a decided on that one issue. Hilliary Clinton will be President and the Democratic majority in Congress will go from marginal to overwhelming. What a waste.