Wednesday, August 15, 2007

News from the Western Front

Unless you have perfect credit and you want to borrow less than $400,000 you ain't going to get no mortgage, baby. You can find a few houses in the LA basin for less than half a mil but you better be ready to invest in body armour and pittbulls. Not many houses are going to be changing hands any time soon. New construction for less than $500,000, forget about it. Housing starts may look good for the last couple of months, housing finishes are going to be another story.

Three more months, tops, a whole lot of real estate professionals are going to be out of a job. Escrow officers, loan officers, and a raft of related workers, ditto. The construction trades are shutting down. Lumberyards and building supply houses will go into moth balls. When the construction trades come to a halt, so do the remittances to Mexico and Central America. Instant recession for our neighbors to the south. The sale of the durable goods that go into the domiciles that change hands? Nope. And on, and on, and on.

Unemployment is going to start going up. Money is tight. There's going to be less of it around. SoCal is a service economy. Mostly, we make a living out here cleaning each others pools. Can everybody say, domino effect?

There's nothing to worry about. We've had this kind of thing happen before. We just need to generate some liquidity. No problem.

I've got just two words to say to you.

PYRAMID SCHEMES!!!

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