Saturday, February 09, 2008

Many Days You Have Lingered, Outside My Cabin Door

We have listened to the old men. Our leaders. Men of experience. Men of wisdom.

They told us it would never happen. All we had to do was follow their lead, Keep a good thought and not succumb to the fear and doubt. Work hard. Live our lives. Raise our children. Nothing could hurt us.

A service economy is inherently more stable than one based on actual production. Production jobs are boring, uninteresting and don't pay good. The people that do them become malcontents and want collective bargaining, benefits and better pay. The market for goods and materials can fluctuate but people are always going to need their investments managed, their taxes done, their pools cleaned, their burgers flipped. The pay might not be good but if you're smart, you'll learn to do something that people will pay more for or become a manager of workers who do the same job you used to. In the meantime, get on with your life. Get married. Raise a family. Buy a house. Don't worry about the cost. You're credit is good.

Your credit wasn't good though, was it? Turns out, a service economy isn't inherently stable. Buying a house is not the same thing as owning one. A ponzi scheme is still a ponzi scheme, whether the guy that sucks you in is your next door neighbor or the President of the United States. Your money is still just as gone. Your life is still just as over.

What about those old men of experience, the leaders? The ones that told you there was nothing to fear. It turns out they own their houses, really own them and a lot more besides. What about their kids? They went to good schools. They're working. In Latin America, Europe, Asia. They are learning the language, making contacts. Things are happening over there. They need help over there. Help setting up service economies. Help developing a modern banking system and structured investment vehicles.

Hard Times Come Again No More.

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