Sunday, April 10, 2011

How 2012 Will Work

The 2012 elections are not going to be about what the majority of the people want.  The majority of the people have no idea what they want. It's questionable that they ever do.

There are a lot more Democrats than Republicans. That's been true for awhile. It's going to be increasingly true in the future unless something changes drastically. Few Democrats will likely cross over vote, that's even more true of Republicans. There are a lot of independents though, maybe more than ever before.  Unless there are attractive third party or independent candidates, probably more than half of independent voters will align with Republicans than Democrats.

Come election time 2012, I bet I will be able to predict the outcomes of a lot of the races pretty well. It's going to depend on who's mad and how mad. Mad people are more likely to vote.  If only the Republicans are really mad, the races will be close but they will lose. If only the Democrats are mad, they will win decisively. If everybody is mad, it will be a very close race but I believe the Democrats will retain the Presidency and make modest gains otherwise. Republicans have to stay mad, they have to convince independents to get mad and they can't allow Democrats to be mad on the first Tuesday in November. That's the only way they can win. It may not be that hard, they're half way there already.

The Republicans have been whipping their troops into a frenzy since the medrassa mud boy won the Presidency in 2008. They do not have time to take a breather before 2012. They're going to have to keep the troops riled and get independents foaming as well. Their biggest problem isn't even that. In order to get enough independent votes, they are going to have to field a slate of candidates, virtually anywhere they want to win, who are not socially conservative.  Social conservatives make up no more than 30% of the total vote, virtually all registered Republicans. Many independent voters have sympathy for fiscally conservative ideals, even some Democrats do but they all think the Socons are wacky, making them unsuitable to govern, no matter what their stand on other issues. The Socons, who now make up a majority of Republican primary voters may well insist on candidates drawn from their number. If it was hard core liberals in charge on the Democratic side, they would insist on the same thing.

There are three issues that nobody should fuck with if they want to get elected in 2012, abortion, the poor and illegal immigrants. My feeling is that both sides would like to throw these issues at each other as they have in the past but there is no way that they can do it to advantage. They are going to agree that abortions are fine but won't be paid for by the government. The poor and illegal immigrants don't vote so they're going to get thrown under the bus.

The wars aren't going to be an issue either. Both sides have so much blood on their hands that they're just going to pretend they don't exist.

Besides fiscal austerity, which is, always has been and always will be, all hand job and no cunt by both sides, it's going to be interesting to see what big issues will shake out. Don't ask me, I got no idea. I think they may still be looking hard for that long form birth certificate right up until election eve, 2012. What do you think, Bub.


Contrary in Texas said...

"medrassa mud boy"

Now if I'd said that, you'd accused me of being a racist.

reddog said...

When have I ever accused you of anything, shipmate? That's not the kind of relationship we have.

Contrary in Texas said...

Haven't you accused conservatives of racism before? If not, then I apologize.

There are a lot of racists around but they are not limited to the conservative side.