Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Boeing, Boeing

Have you seen Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner? It is very cool. It uses a lot of Mylar and carbon fiber laminated with epoxy to create a large, long haul airliner that has more in common with the experimental planes of the Rutan brothers than the 707 that revolutionized air travel in the late 50s.

If it is successful, it will be the biggest step forward for commercial aviation since metal, monocoque monoplanes replaced wood framed, fabric covered biplanes with wire strut stressors. The problem is that nothing like it has ever been built before that will be subjected to the heavy loads and extreme, extended stress and strain of commercial airline use.

All the computer simulations in the World can't tell you what's really going to happen when these birds start to pile up the miles. First, they need extensive real world testing and evaluation. Thy need a few years at least of freight hauling use before being put into even relatively short haul passenger service. Boeing has taken hundreds of orders for these planes on the basis of claims of huge increases in energy efficiency and has promised delivery of a reliable, safe, all the bugs worked out product with delivery pending now. They have staked their reputation and future revenue that they can deliver.

I don't think it's going to happen. Not for at least a few more years and some additional engineering work. I think they have made a mistake. Don't buy their stock. Don't fly in this plane.

2 comments:

beebs said...

The 787 is beset with delays. Boeing went to many "new" subcontractors to produce parts and it was a SNAFU.

Somewhere I have a link to the SNAFU.
LET me go search for it.

Listening to "Shove" by L7.

beebs said...

http://tinyurl.com/7z8scn