Reshuffle, New Deal

Iraq is about to break wide open. The Kurds have autonomy, it is a done deal. They need revenue. The Northern city of Kirkuk will give them that. The Sunnis are rearmed and on the payroll of Petraeus, it is a done deal. They want autonomy and meaningful participation in any future Iraqi government. The Shiia are now divided between the largest faction, the Sadrists and everybody else. The Shiia will get control of the lion's share of the country and the oil revenues, the only question is how it will be split up.

The Americans need to get a handle on the country. They need to forge stable working relationships with the ethnic and religious factions. They also need to dissolve the current nationalized, socialist management of petroleum resources and implement contractual agreements with Big Oil to control and exploit the crude, effectively giving them control of the Iraqi economy. They need to do it fast. It is not a time for subtlety. Chances must be taken. Concessions must be made.

The Americans have lined up all the factions, with the exception of the Sadrists, with the Maliki government. This alliance will now attempt to crush the Sadrists and their militia, the Mehdi Army. There are two questions that remain. The first is where do the Iranians line up? Whoever the Iranians support, will win. The second is, will the Sadrists, if beaten, stay beaten. They are the largest single political faction in the country. They certainly comprise a majority of the Shiia, possibly even the whole country. Even without Moctada al-Sadr to lead them, they will need to line up with somebody. Whoever that is will control the electoral process, if there is an electoral process.

The first goal of this new Maliki led coalition, must be the control and stabilization of the Capital, Baghdad and the assurance of the safety of the Green Zone. After that, they can work on Basra and the other Southern population centers. These new allies will fight for the Americans under the auspices of the Maliki government but will never consent to live under its control. As I have said before, Maliki will have to go. The US will have to make good on its promises, whatever they are. Tehran will have to approve of the outcome, whatever it is.

Always in the background is this. While the Sadrists are the most vociferous in their demands for the American occupation of Iraq to end, none of these factions has any reason to want the Americans to stay in Iraq. They may, in the end, agree to share the oil among themselves but will they share it with the infidel? After the Sadrists are defeated, will they be able to work together to govern or at least be docile enough for the Americans to bribe? Big questions.

Interesting times.