For the last week, Republican loyalists have been hanging onto the hope offered by Zogby's one day Presidential tracking polls. These statistically unreliable polls, with their small sample size and short duration, offered a ray of hope to them, as all other polls showed a widespread consolidation of Obama's support. Saturday, the Zogby one day indicator actually had McCain up one point on Obama, 47 to 46%, with a bullet. Alas, the bullet has ricocheted, striking Sheriff John in the heart. Today's latest Zogby one day wonder has Obama with 49.5% support, up almost seven percent on McCain. He's essentially a few undecided votes and a wake up, away from the Presidency.
These one day Zogby polls are not indicative of anything. All of the progressive tracking polls, including Zogby have Obama comfortably ahead, with no rapid trend changes indicated. A 3% lead in popular vote, nationwide, given current voter preference distribution, will give Obama close to or over 360 electoral votes, almost a hundred more than he needs. Every indication is that his margins of support will be greater than that. Maybe 5%. Maybe more. There are still a lot of variables, such as massive early voting and increased participation, that could send Obama's numbers sky high.
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