Sunday, December 06, 2009

Navigating The Shalt Nots

Gold had a short pull back a week ago during the long Thanksgiving weekend, from which it quickly recovered and resumed its climb. Last Friday gold lost $50 an ounce. One should never assume that changes like this are transitory. They always signal a change in momentum. Who knows how much or for how long.

I would like to see the price go down at least another $50 an ounce and then trade sideways for a few weeks, to establish a little confidence that there is some support at $1100 and to let the market cool down. If it goes down more than that, I won't be surprised or disappointed but neither will I be as sanguine as I would during a smaller drop. There's no reason that gold couldn't drop several hundred dollars an ounce over at least a few months and then take a year or more to recover. There is all the time in the World for that to happen and when it gets finished, the economy will still be fucked up and ready for a gold bull market. I don't think that's likely because it just finished doing that and I think it will do something different now.

Gold could bounce right back and continue its climb. That's not necessarily the best thing that could happen. As an investor, I'd be lying if I said I ever wanted gold to do anything but go up in value. I'm only human. When I was younger, I was interested in lust, sloth, drunkenness and gluttony. Now that I'm older, I am enthralled by avarice and greed. I honestly am not sure why but it doesn't make it less true. I see them as two different things, avarice as the desire for riches not already in my possession and greed as the unwillingness to part with wealth I already have. I'm surprised there aren't a lot more words in this vein. Eskimos have 10,000 different words for snow. I like to think I am a virtuous man. I have never been troubled by jealousy or envy. Well, not too much and those are the really deadly sins. I'm sure God smiles upon my shining face.

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