Dead Man Walking

Moctada al-Sadr has issued a nine point plan for a truce between the Mehdi Army and the Iraqi government. Hundreds of his fighters are dead, hundreds more captured. Besieged Sadrist areas are running out of food, water and fuel. Thousands of civilians are probably dead or injured. American ground troops, while always active in other areas of partisan conflict, around the country and in the Capital, have now entered the fight in Basra, at the behest of a failed Iraqi Prime Minister turned General, threatening to turn an already bloody fight into genocide. Here in America, the spin has started between those portraying this as an opportunity for a face saving retreat, by the Maliki government or a humiliating military defeat, of the Mehdi forces. How this is viewed, may have implications for the political campaigns now underway, leading up to the November elections.

In Iraq, the situation is viewed differently. Maliki is seen as the head of a Shiite government, who has enlisted the aid of the infidel occupiers, to liquidate those forces belonging to the largest and most popular Shiite political group in the nation. It is not possible to over estimate the negative effect, that this will have on his future effectiveness, as the leader of the Iraqi Parliament.

Moctada, in the safety of an Iranian monastery, is seen as a humanitarian religious leader, trying to bring to an end to bloody, needless, inter sectarian strife.

None of these things may be actually true. In fact, it is very likely that they are not. Maliki may, in fact, be the Iraqi leader best equipped to both deal with the American occupiers and lead his country into a democratic future and out of the Pan Islamic National Socialism that has gripped most of the Middle East since the days of Gamel Abdul Nasser. None of that matters now. Maliki will no longer have any legitimacy with any of the Shiite community. The Islamic community is pragmatic, if nothing else. They would not necessarily condemn fratricide, if it is a political necessity but if you will sell out one brother to the infidel, you will sell out another. The solidarity of the Islamic community, against the forces of the infidel, during time of invasion, is more important than anything else. Anything else. Even the Sunnis are frightened and disgusted by Maliki's actions. He's done. He could probably move to America and find a college teaching job. If he has any ambitions beyond that, he might as well just shoot himself in the head. The alternatives are likely to be a lot more painful, for himself, his loved ones and any close associates, during this episode.

Moctada al-Sadr, on the other hand, has no real desire to see an end to the violence, at this time. It is important only that he be seen as trying to stop the bloodshed, by the Americans, that is rapidly leading to national insurrection. Such a revolution is, after all, his goal. He does not care how many of his people die. There are plenty of them and the birth rate is more than adequate, to make the loss, of any number of them, insignificant. I don't think he cares one way or another, whether the Maliki government accepts his nine point plan or not. I do think, that if he had a choice, he'd like to see the fight go on. If a truce between the Mehdis and governmental forces is re-established, I think it will not last long. The real victory for al-Sadr is he has shown himself to be a true hero of the Islamic cause and a compassionate father to his people and has exposed his adversary as dependent, on the infidel Americans, for the authority to govern and not the support of the Islamic people of Iraq.

Moctada al-Sadr, if he lives, will be the leader of Iraq. If he dies, he will be the martyred hero that turns the face of the Iraqis against the Great Shaitan forever.