Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Before He Takes His Rest

I keep expecting that the equities markets will rally. It's been 5 days straight down and the Dow is below 9500. The S&P below 1000. It looks like the market will open lower Wednesday. There are still a few hours to go, so how much lower is still in question. The European markets are off their lows but they could fall off before closing.

I'm watching CNBC. One of the interesting questions that people are beginning to ask in Europe is whether the EURO can survive the current crisis. The consensus is beginning to be that it can not. It doesn't surprise me too much. It's an artificial construct. The stronger nations will want to pull out. The weaker economies will have no say.

What is surprising is that nobody is questioning, at least openly, whether the US Dollar can survive. Some people must be starting to question its viability. I know I am. I guess the repercussions that would follow its failure are too profound for anyone to think about yet.

I still have a lot of dollars. I'm glad I do. Nothing else would have held up half as good these last few months. I think the dollar is a straw man. A dead man walking but I also think he has a way yet to walk, before he takes his rest.

UPDATE: 4AM PT announcement of a joint, global, central bank interest rate cut, 50 basis points. That's a first. Maybe the markets will open up after all. I bet it sells off later.

No comments: