Sunday, October 26, 2008

Polls about Pols are Poles apart

Presidential polls are wacky right now. Some have Obama way ahead. Some have it a very close race. A few even have McCain with a narrow lead. How can this be?

The big difference between polls is mostly due to who they think will vote, not how those asked say they will vote. The single best predictor of who will vote has always been and will always be, a previous pattern of consistent voting. Republicans have been very good, for a very long time, at getting their people out to vote. The Democrats, not so much.

If the same people voted this election as voted 4 years ago, the election would be very close, like it was 4 years ago. McCain could win, as Bush did four years ago. Elections in America are always decided more by the people that don't vote, than by the people that do. Most pollsters are counting on the fact that more young people, more minorities, more urban poor, will vote in this election, favoring Obama. What they don't really know is to what extent this will be true. Some question if it will be true at all, since it has never been the case before. The result is that the polls differ widely. The Democrats are encouraged by the polls that show Barry way ahead and pulling away. The Republicans keep hope alive by pointing to polls that show it is still very much a horse race.

I think there may be a bigger turnout this election than previously. Election turnout, especially during Presidential years has been increasing over the past several cycles but this has been true for Republicans as well as Democrats. The increase in voter registration this year, would tend to indicate a much larger turnout. Polling not focused on choice of candidate but voter enthusiasm also indicate a possible larger turnout for the Democrats. There is clearly some degree of apathy among fiscal conservatives, who are less than thrilled with the mainstream choices, indicating they might not vote in numbers as large as usual, although generally once a voter, always a voter.

I don't think anybody is really sure how it's going to go next Tuesday. I think that's the way it should be. I look forward to staying up late and watching the returns. Maybe we'll have hot dogs and beer and wave little flags about gaily.

2 comments:

Navy Blue Cougar said...

I was just thinking of this earlier this weekend. While I keep hearing on the news that the race is tightening, I look at the RealClearPolitics website and it shows Obama continuing to pull away from McCain.

I sincerely hope that Obama wins, but he has his wagon hitched to younger voters and they have historically not turned out to vote in large numbers. I hope they come out to vote this year.

I went to the Democratic Caucus earlier this year and there was an almost overwhelming number of young voters there and they were very enthusiastic.

My big concern is that the caucus was in February. Has that enthusiasm died down in the last 8 months? It will be an interesting election day.

Nereus said...

I wouldn't discount the "blue hair" vote. There are several hundreds of thousands of votes that reside with the retired, don't participate in online polls telephone polls or any other opinion gathering forums, non internet connected who will go and vote early on the next election day. They will more than likely check the box next to Mccain because he is as close to safe as they are going to get this Nov.
The Media and other data gathering sources don't really have a grasp on the true opinion of this election because they are basing the popular opinion on easy to gather polls (via internet and other electronic sources) and not what middle America is actually thinking.
It will be interesting
Nereus